Inflection Point

*Analyzing the markets with Richie Naso, a Wall Street veteran of over 40 years and former member of the NYSE.

• DJIA 52-wk: +8.56% | YTD: -5.17% | Wkly: -2.11%
• S&P 500 52-wk: +14.80% | YTD: -4.95% | Wkly: -1.90%
• NASDAQ 52-wk: +21.72% | YTD: -6.86% | Wkly: -2.07%
• SPDR Gold Shares 52-wk: +48.44% | YTD: +4.31% | Wkly: -10.30%

(Prices as of Stock Market Close 20th March 2026.)

The DOW is now down 4 weeks in a row. First time since Feb. 2023

1) Energy Shock = The Big Story

Oil surged toward $100–$110+

Driven by escalating Middle East conflict (Iran situation)

Inflation fears re-accelerated

Market takeaway:

Higher oil = higher inflation = fewer Fed cuts The Guardian

2) Fed Expectations Shifted (Big Deal)

Rate cuts that were expected earlier?
 ➡️ Now being pushed out or questioned

Some probability of rate hikes creeping back in

👉 This is what really hit equities:

Higher rates → lower valuations

Especially painful for tech / growth WSJ

3) Risk Assets Under Pressure

·Small caps (Russell 2000) hit hardest → growth concerns

·Tech sold off sharply late week

·Junk bond outflows rising (risk stress signal)

👉 Institutional read:

This wasn’t just profit-taking — it was de-risking

What’s happening

We’re in an active buyback window

S&P 500 companies are still executing programs aggressively

BUT here’s the key shift:

Buybacks are losing control of the tape

In Jan–Feb:

Buybacks = strong price support

This past week:

Buybacks = absorbing selling, not pushing markets higher

What to watch (this is your edge)

Stocks with heavy buybacks that STILL go down

👉 That’s a red flag

Stocks that:

Announce buybacks

Pop → then fade

That = distribution, not accumulation

U.S. equities extended their decline on Friday, with small-cap stocks leading the downturn as rising yields continue to pressure risk assets. The Russell 2000 Index (RTY)(IWM), a widely followed benchmark for U.S. small-cap companies, has officially entered correction territory, falling 10.3% from its January 22 closing high.

The index was last trading near 2,435, hovering just below its 200-day moving average of 2,437—a key technical level closely watched by investors. A sustained break below this threshold could signal further downside momentum for the small-cap segment, which is often more sensitive to borrowing costs and economic shifts.

The broader market has also shown signs of strain. The tech focused Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) has declined 9.8% from its record high, while the Dow (DJI) is down 9.5%, nearing correction territory as well. The S&P 500 (SP500) has pulled back 7% from its peak.

Much of the recent weakness has been driven by a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, as investors increasingly price in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain elevated rates—or potentially resume rate hikes into 2026—have weighed heavily on equities, particularly growth-oriented and smaller-cap stocks.

The drums of war are beating and the stress of the oil market is weighing heavily on the U.S. equity market. Before war broke out in the Middle East, the U.S. market had already been hit with its first gut punch. AI stocks, which had been the source of the boom, were well off of their highs. Stress was mounting around what AI's negative impact could be on the real economy, helping to shred multiples of many once high-flying stocks.

My typical routine is to dig through dozens of charts, looking for some hints as to what is to come. Some of the charts are downright gruesome, especially when you are pulling up software names with potentially huge negative disruption from AI. Others are starting to look hopeful, with some names in the datacenter world and hyperscalers coming back to life.

This quarter, however, beat-and-raise earnings reports have frequently been met with selling. Seems like every big spike up finds lots of volume of sellers looking to smack it back down to Earth. The gap-and-go has been so rare during this market phase. Investors are starting to get fatigued.

Recent price action has been shaky. Even on days when the market looked to recover after a streak of losers, the market doesn't impress on its bounce back. The message is similar across most of the charts I'm seeing. There is weakness and we are in search of a bid that's simply not showing up with any sort of conviction.

The good news is, there are reasons why the market looks the way it does. As these unknowns begin to settle down and subside, there will be some incredible opportunities. You just have to have the right tools at your disposal to find the diamonds in the rough.

The sector has taken a hit this year. Now the stocks are starting to look like bargains. We found six with strong prospects.

Bank stocks have trailed the market this year as concerns about private credit and the impact of the Iran war on the U.S. economy have weighed on the sector.

As a result of these worries, the State Street SPDR S&P Bank exchange-traded fund has fallen nearly 5% in 2026, compared to the S&P 500’s 2.9% decline, while big institutions, including Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase, have all fallen more than 10%.

Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in a recent report that investors shouldn’t be too nervous about the recent weakness in the sector. “Bank stocks do not currently signal any truly damaging spillover from the problems in private credit or higher oil prices into the U.S. economy,” he wrote. “Yes, they have experienced some underperformance over the last month, but that will have to get much worse before this group sends out a broader ‘sell’ signal.”

Indeed, bank stocks are starting to look like bargains. The State Street SPDR S&P Bank and State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETFs trade for less than 10 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months. That is a larger than typical discount to the broader market, and a slightly bigger than usual haircut relative to their own average multiples over the past 10 years.

Banks should also benefit from the continued capital markets boom on Wall Street, with merger activity and initial public offerings lifting fee revenue. Many will benefit from their own acquisitions. Regional banks could also get a boost from increased demand for loans, especially if the Federal Reserve resumes its rate-cutting cycle later this year. There are also growing hopes that regulators in Washington will relax the most onerous of bank capital requirements that had been instituted since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Here are six bank stocks that should thrive in this environment.

BARCLAYS

British banking giant Barclays trades for only seven times earnings estimates. But analysts at J.P. Morgan expect “a very manageable impact” from the minimal amount of exposure to private credit in the bank’s portfolio.

Barclays is also benefiting from the M&A and IPO comeback. It posted an 11% increase in investment banking profits last year. And the bank remains confident that it will be able to return more capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks over the next few years.

BOK Financial

Worries about spiking oil prices due to the Iran war have boosted market volatility, but the Tulsa, Okla.-based regional bank BOK Financial should get a lift if energy costs remain elevated. Analysts at Wells Fargo said in a report this month that BOK will be “perceived to be more oil exposed than most mid-cap banks, and higher energy prices could be viewed favorably for its borrowers and economic footprint.”

Investors seem to have caught on to this fact. Shares are up more than 5% this year. But BOK still trades for less than 13 times earnings estimates, a reasonable valuation that leaves room for upside.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is another play on oil, and the Toronto-based bank also looks attractively valued, trading for just under 13 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months. The stock has held up well amid the recent market volatility, rising 8% so far this year. The momentum should continue.

CIBC is benefiting from increased loan demand from its Canadian consumer and business banking customers and is also getting a boost from its global investment banking unit. First-quarter results were lifted by higher stock and commodities trading as well as more equity and debt underwriting. Analysts are forecasting annual earnings growth of nearly 13% for the next few years.

Capital One Financial

The regional banking and credit-card leader Capital One Financial should continue to benefit from synergies with Discover Financial Services following their $35 billion merger last year. Wall Street is predicting that earnings per share will increase more than 20% in 2027.

The Discover deal makes Capital One a major rival to payments leaders Visa and Mastercard by giving the bank its own network. But Capital One trades at a big discount to both. It’s valued at less than nine times earnings estimates for the next 12 months, compared with 23 and 25 for Visa and Mastercard, respectively.

Citigroup

The Big Four U.S. banks have lagged behind the market this year in large part due to private credit concerns, with Citigroup’s shares down nearly 7%. But Citi CEO Jane Fraser thinks it’s unfair to paint the sector with a broad brush. She said at a RBC Capital Markets conference in March that she’s “more sanguine on private credit,” adding that while there may be “some idiosyncratic risk,” it’s not “a systemic issue.”

Analysts at Truist Securities said in a recent report that Citi should also get a lift from the boom in deals and new stock issuance. The bank looks attractive at just 10 times earnings estimates, a discount to JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo, as well as Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley.

Fifth Third Bancorp

Fifth Third Bancorp just completed its more than $12 billion merger with regional banking rival Comerica in February. Like Capital One, the bank should be able to generate significant savings. Justin Bergner, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, and Bill Smead, chairman and chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, both cite the stock as a pick thanks to the potential for merger synergies. Smead says there’s a chance to “shed $850 million in expenses from overlapping costs.”

Still, there’s more to the Fifth Third story than lower expenses. J.P. Morgan analyst Vivek Juneja notes that commercial and industrial loan growth has started to pick up. He has an Overweight rating on Fifth Third and a price target of $50.50, 15% above current levels. And shares remain attractive, trading for just 12 times earnings estimates.

All bounces were sold last week, and the broader market is starting to show real strain. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has declined 9.8% from its record high, while the Dow is down 9.5%, approaching correction territory. The S&P 500 has pulled back about 7% from its peak, and the Russell 2000 is already in correction.

With most major indexes at or near these levels, the market is clearly at an inflection point. This could turn into a classic 10% correction if support holds—and I believe the initial test of these levels will.

The risk for shorts is any positive development on the geopolitical front, particularly around the war, which would likely impact oil prices. Personally, I wouldn’t be short here.

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