Why I Focus on Process Over Predictions in Trading

*Bob Iaccino, Chief Market Strategist and Co-Founder of Path Trading Partners, joins us live every Thursday from 11am ET, as our risk management educator. With 30 years' experience working as an active investor in equities, commodities, futures and FX there are few better to talk on the subject of risk management.

Bob has developed a method for breaking down his key fundamentals of risk management, in a way that he thinks retail traders can understand and use to get actionable insights to bring into their own trading. Below are some excerpts of Bob’s thoughts from a recent live session.

One of the biggest misconceptions about trading is the idea that you need to know exactly what the market will do next in order to succeed. In reality, nobody has perfect foresight. Markets are a constant tug of war between buyers and sellers, and their movement reflects changing expectations, not certainties.

Early in my career, I wanted every trade to be “right.” Over time, I realized that trading is not about being right every time - it is about having a process that allows you to manage risk, capture opportunity, and grow steadily. My focus now is on following my process rather than predicting market moves with precision.

When traders focus on being right, they put unnecessary pressure on themselves. Every losing trade feels like failure, which can trigger emotional decisions. By contrast, a process-centered approach recognizes that losses are part of the game.

I set clear rules for how I enter and exit trades. Those rules are based on technical analysis, volume, market breadth, and multiple time frames. Using TradeZero’s charts, for example, I can visualize these levels clearly before entering. If my stop-loss is hit, I exit. If my targets are reached, I scale out. By treating trading as a process, I eliminate second-guessing and avoid chasing perfection.

One of the ways I strengthen my process is by aligning signals across different time frames. The weekly chart often shows the dominant trend, while the daily and intraday charts reveal momentum and entry points.

Let’s say I am watching a large-cap technology stock. On the weekly chart, the trend is bullish, but the intraday chart is pulling back. Rather than panicking, I wait for the shorter-term time frame to align with the broader trend. TradeZero’s charting platform makes it simple to toggle between these views and set alerts when price action confirms my setup.

This keeps me from reacting impulsively to noise and helps me anchor my trades to the bigger picture.

Predictions often fail because traders ignore confirmation. A breakout without volume, for example, is fragile. When I see a stock push through resistance, I check whether volume is expanding. On TradeZero, I track this with real-time volume overlays. If the move lacks conviction, I size smaller or skip the trade entirely.

Market breadth gives me another layer of insight. A stock can rally on its own, but if most stocks in the index are declining, I know the odds of follow-through are lower. This context helps me avoid the trap of believing that one data point guarantees a certain outcome.

Trading psychology is as important as technical analysis. When you stop trying to be “right,” you reduce stress and improve decision-making. Fear often drives traders to exit good trades too early. Greed makes them hold onto bad trades, hoping they will turn around.

By focusing on my process, I can detach from those emotions. For example, when I set a stop-loss, I commit to honoring it. This frees me from debating during the heat of the moment. When my profit targets are hit, I take them without regret, even if the stock keeps running. My job is not to capture every tick, but to trade my plan consistently.

Many traders struggle with patience. They want to be in a trade all the time, believing activity equals progress. In truth, waiting for the right setup is a powerful skill. I often sit on the sidelines until my criteria align. Some of my most profitable trades came after extended periods of waiting.

TradeZero’s alerts and watchlists help me manage this. Rather than staring at charts all day and forcing trades, I set alerts for the levels that matter. When price reaches them, I reevaluate and act if the conditions match my plan. This builds discipline and helps avoid impulsive entries.

Markets evolve, and no process stays static forever. I review my performance regularly, using detailed trade journals and analytics. If I see that a certain setup is losing its edge, I adapt by refining the criteria. What I do not do is abandon the process after a losing streak. Losses happen, but consistency comes from refinement, not reinvention.

TradeZero’s reporting features make it easier to analyze which setups are working and which need adjusting. Over time, this allows me to improve while still maintaining a disciplined foundation.

Live Sessions (hereafter referred to as the “Content”) are produced by TradeZero. The Content may include the views and opinions of TradeZero and a third-party participant, Bob Iaccino. Bob Iaccino is compensated by TradeZero for participating in the Content. Mr. Iaccino’s trading experiences and accomplishments are unique, and your trading results may vary substantially from his. TradeZero is not responsible for and neither affirms nor endorses any of Mr. Iaccino’s views or opinions expressed in the Content. TradeZero makes no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy of the Content or information available through any referenced or linked third party sites. The Content has been made available for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment advice or a recommendation as to any security.

Trading securities can involve high risk and potential loss of funds. Furthermore, trading on margin is for experienced investors and traders only as the amount you may lose can be greater than your initial investment. Likewise, short selling as a securities trading strategy is extremely risky and can lead to potentially unlimited losses. Options trading is not suitable for all investors as it can involve risk that may expose investors to significant losses. Please read the Characteristics and Risk of Standardized Options, also known as the options disclosure document (ODD) at https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Documents-and-Archives/Options-Disclosure-Document before deciding to engage in options trading.

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