September Stock Market History Is In Play 

* Analyzing the markets with Richie Naso, a Wall Street veteran of over 40 years and former member of the NYSE.

DJIA52-wk: +12.53% | YTD: +6.71% | Wkly: -0.32%

S&P 50052-wk: +19.84% | YTD: +10.20% | Wkly: +0.33%

NASDAQ52-wk: +30.01% | YTD: +12.37% | Wkly: +1.14%

Alphabet52-wk: +55.71% | YTD: +24.14% | Wkly: +10.38%

Weekly Market Snapshot

Index Performance & Key Moves

S&P 500 ended the week up ~0.3%, despite a minor 0.3% drop on Friday. It briefly hit a new all-time closing high of 6,502.08 on Thursday. AP News reports.

Nasdaq posted stronger gains, up ~1.1% for the week, with only a slight dip on Friday. AP News reports.

Dow Jones Industrial Average struggled overall, falling ~0.3% for the week and dropping 0.5% on the final day. AP News reports.

Russell 2000 (Small Caps) climbed 1.0% on the week, buoyed by strong end-of-week momentum. AP News reports.

Drivers of Market Action

Friday’s poor jobs report—just 22,000 new jobs added in August, far below expectations, and a rise in unemployment to 4.3%—bolstered rate-cut expectations, especially in light of Fed timing speculation.

Investor's Business Daily reports.

Selling pressure earlier in the week was partly driven by uncertainty stemming from President Trump’s tariff policies and attempted Fed interference, which raised concerns about central bank independence.New York Post reports.

On the corporate news front:

Macy’s shares surged ~21–30%, driven by better-than-expected same-store sales and a raised outlook.The Wall Street Journal reports.

Kraft Heinz shares dropped about 7% following its announcement to split into two separate entities.The Wall Street Journal reports.

Alphabet stock jumped ~9% after a favorable ruling allowing it to maintain paid default search deals on Apple devices.The Wall Street Journal reports.

Tesla proposed a potential $1 trillion compensation package for Elon Musk, sparking a ~3.6–4% rally.The Wall Street Journal reports.

Factbox-Inside Tesla's $1 trillion pay proposal for CEO Elon Musk (Source: Reuters)

Tesla outlined a $1 trillion compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk on Friday, which pays out if he is able to grow the EV company's market capitalization from about $1.1 trillion to $8.5 trillion and to hit several operational targets.

The award would vest in tranches and the last two quotas require a board‑approved CEO succession plan.

STOCK-BASED COMPENSATION

Tesla plans to grant Musk up to 423.7 million performance-based restricted shares — about 12% of the company's current shares — split into 12 equal tranches.

MARKET VALUE MILESTONES

The plan sets 12 market-capitalization targets, starting at $2 trillion for the first, followed by nine increases of $500 billion each, and finally two $1 trillion milestones, bringing the total to $8.5 trillion.

The market-cap milestones must be "sustained," meaning Tesla must meet both a 30‑day and a six‑month trailing average market value.

BUSINESS GOALS

Tesla has set 12 operational milestones including rolling out robotaxis and robots, and raising profits as measured by adjusted EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

FOUR PRODUCT GOALS

** 20 million Tesla vehicles delivered, total

** 10 million paid Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions on average over three consecutive months; free trials will not count

** 1 million "Bots" delivered (AI robots like Optimus), counted from the September 3 grant date

** 1 million driverless robotaxis in commercial service on average over three successive months

EARNING STOCK TRANCHE VS. RECEIVING

After a tranche is earned, Musk is able to vote the awarded shares. The shares vest, which means they are completely in his control and could be sold, either 7.5 or 10 years after September 3, 2025, when the award program starts. Shares earned in the first five years of the program vest at 7.5 years of the program. Those earned in the second five years vest at the 10th year.

Musk must remain Tesla's CEO or be in another approved executive role at the time of vesting to receive the shares.

FORFEITURE RULES

Tesla's plan proposes that if any goals are not met by the end of the 10-year program, the associated awards will be forfeited.

If Musk stops serving in an approved role, all unvested shares are also forfeited, except in certain cases like qualifying terminations or a change in control.

The Market Is Pricey. Dividends Can Provide a Cushion in a Pullback. (Barron's reports)
By Jack Hough

The U.S. stock market appears to be on dividend Ozempic. Late last year, the percentage of earnings paid out to shareholders hit a 25-year low. J.P. Morgan predicted a big reversal, saying that payment growth would average 7.6% over five years, two points more than the prior 20 years. Instead, the slimdown continues. S&P 500 (SPX -0.32%) dividends are now projected to increase by just 4% this year, well below the 11% growth for earnings. The index’s yield is barely 1%.

Before I come to some companies that are bucking the trend, it’s fair to ask: Who cares? Investors have made great money on things that pay nothing, like gold (GC00 -0.37%), Bitcoin (BTCUSD -1.15%), and Nvidia. Technically, each $170 share of that last one pays a penny per quarter, but still. JPM points out that reinvested dividends made up 55% of returns from 1987 through the middle of last year. But over the past decade, dividend stock indexes have largely underperformed.

That has left dividend stocks relatively cheap and unloved—a bit like overseas stocks at the start of this year, after decades of lagging behind America. Suddenly, while the U.S. has returned a hefty 16% this year, an investment in all other countries has made twice as much in dollar terms.

Dividend stocks look similarly due. A basket of them, the iShares Core Dividend (DIVB -0.40%) exchange-traded fund, trades at 15 times earnings. That’s close to the broader market’s historical average, but right now, the S&P 500 trades at a lofty 24 times earnings.

Jim Reid, head of thematic research at Deutsche Bank, writes that the U.S. market’s valuation today compares with three peaks over the past century, each of which was followed by a decade of negative returns, after subtracting inflation.

The bull case seems to hinge on artificial intelligence powering a “paradigm shift” unlike anything seen in the past 150 years, he writes. If AI falls short, diversification can help. Overseas stocks remain reasonably priced. Safe, short-term bonds pay around 4.25%. And dividend payments can provide comfort amid a dip in prices.

For investors who want to add dividend exposure, the aforementioned iShares fund tracks a passive index and pays 2.9%. Top holdings include Cisco Systems (CSCO -1.60%), yielding 2.4%; Exxon Mobil, 3.5%; JPMorgan Chase, 1.9%; Qualcomm, 2.3%; and Wells Fargo, 2.2%.

For higher starting yields but slower payment growth, there’s a sibling fund. The iShares Core High Dividend ETF pays 3.4% and also counts Exxon as a top holding, along with Johnson & Johnson, yielding 2.9%; AbbVie, 3.1%; Chevron, 4.3%; and Home Depot, 2.3%.
Moving in the other direction—lower starting yields but zippy payment growth—raises challenges. The iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF, yielding 2.2%, counts J&J and JPM as top-five holdings. But the others are Big Tech names whose yields stink: Apple, 0.4%; Microsoft, 0.6%; and Broadcom, 0.8%. That might not be ideal for offsetting S&P 500 exposure.

Better perhaps to turn to a stock-picker for names with humble yields now but potential for quick payment increases. I spoke with Matt Quinlan, who manages a pair of dividend strategies for Franklin Templeton, including a growth-focused one just launched in ETF form, ticker FRIZ. Quinlan likes Apollo Global Management, which pays 1.5% and has a lead in private credit, with well-received fund launches and steady funding. Fee-related earnings should grow by around 20% annually, with dividend payments rising in tandem, Quinlan reckons.

Marriott International yields only 1% but is likely to grow dividend payments at a low-double-digit pace, says Quinlan. It will get there through 5% room growth, plus a few points for price increases, and some margin improvement. Strong demand from Asia bodes well, as does a popular loyalty program and plenty of business travel.

Industrial equipment maker Parker Hannifin is another 1% payer with potential for low-double-digit payment growth. Quinlan likes the company’s proven financial record—it has more than doubled the S&P 500’s return over the past decade—and exposure to attractive end markets, like aerospace, digitalization, and electrification.

Yes, these starting yields are unexciting. For somewhat higher ones with more moderate payment growth, Quinlan likes Cisco; RTX, formerly Raytheon, paying 1.7%; and Philip Morris International, which is growing quickly in smokeless products and yields 3.3%.

Shifting gears, Lyft has two things going for it, stock-wise. It is relatively cheap, at 1.0 times revenue versus 3.7 times for rival Uber Technologies. And Lyft’s free cash flow has turned solidly positive, equaling perhaps 13% of the company’s market value this year.

The rising profitability is thanks to CEO David Risher, who took over for the company’s founders in 2023. Since that announcement, Lyft shares have returned 76% versus 68% for the S&P 500—but Uber has returned 202%. That brings us to the biggest knock on Lyft: that Uber is much larger, yet still growing faster.

I asked Risher about that. He points out that Lyft is growing about as quickly as Uber domestically, which is its key market. A July acquisition of Europe’s Freenow will give Lyft a boost overseas. Other growth initiatives include Lyft Silver, a service tailored for seniors.

The simplest path to expansion is simply convincing more Uber riders to check Lyft before booking. As for the competition, Risher says there are 160 billion car rides a year in the U.S., and that Uber and Lyft combine for only around 2.5 billion.

“People have a mind-set, and I just think it’s wrong...a winner-take-all mind-set,” says Risher. “I think this marketplace works super well with two players.”

Two Pros Point the Way

What’s Next for Investors

• Monday–Tuesday
  Watch Item: CPI and PPI
  Why It Matters: Influence Fed policy speculation and rate cut expectations
  
• Midweek
  Watch Item: iPhone launch, OPEC meeting
  Why It Matters: News events with cross-sector impact
  
• Tuesday–Thursday
  Watch Item: Earnings (Adobe, Chewy, Rubrik)
  Why It Matters: Can trigger sector rotation or stock-specific volatility
  
• Full Week
  Watch Item: Geopolitical headlines, macro sentiment
  Why It Matters: September’s historical risk and political headlines may affect positions

If it’s in the press, it’s in the stock. All you hear about is how bad September usually is. This is true historically, but because of all the attention this is getting, there could be a rally early in the month before they pull the plug.

— Richie

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