SPX Closes At ATH’s. Will The Rally Continue?

*Analyzing the markets with Richie Naso, a Wall Street veteran of over 40 years and former member of the NYSE.

• DJIA 52-wk: +19.80% | YTD: +2.99% | Wkly: +0.55%
• S&P 500 52-wk: +27.14% | YTD: +5.62% | Wkly: +0.91%
• NASDAQ 52-wk: +39.70% | YTD: +8.06% | Wkly: +1.12%
• Russell 2000: Wkly: +0.90% | Outperformed Earlier Weakness And Finished Strong
  
  Note: Yields down late week drove Russell higher. If yields rise, the Russell gets pressured. Not a blowout week, but constructive.

All figures correct as of closing Friday 1st May, 2026.

Equities advanced this week, brushing off a series of major market-moving events with surprising ease. Markets shrugged off the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, five sets of Magnificent Seven earnings reports, and elevated oil prices. Even software stocks, which had been lagging, began showing signs of recovery.

“Equities were in beast mode this week,” said Cestrian Capital Research, Investing Group Leader of Growth Investor Pro. “We believe this rally, loved by investors but as usual hated by the commentariat, has further room to run.”(Seeking Alpha)

The resilience caught some analysts off guard, as investors appeared unfazed by what would typically be considered significant headwinds for stock prices.

The stock market finished Friday’s session modestly higher as Wall Street kicked off the month of May on an optimistic note, with oil prices retreating from multi-year highs and corporate earnings going strong, including Apple’s big beat.

Apple, a consumer electronics and software giant, closed Friday at $280.25, up 3.28%. The stock moved higher after Apple reported record quarterly results, issued upbeat guidance, and expanded its capital-return plans. Investors are watching whether demand for the iPhone and MacBook Neo sustains double-digit revenue growth. Trading volume reached 76 million shares, about 63% above its three-month average of 46.6 million shares. Apple has been publicly listed since 1980. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

What This Means for Investors

After rising 3% on Friday, Apple is again nearing all-time highs, despite being critiqued by many in the market for missing the broader AI revolution. During Q2, Apple’s sales grew 17% and EPS rose 22%, sailing past analysts’ expectations. Management guided for sales to increase between 14% and 17% in Q3. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Several analysts raised their price targets on the stock, citing that Apple could be an AI beneficiary despite largely sitting out the massive capital expenditure spending cycle engulfing its mega-cap tech peers. My most intriguing takeaway from the quarter was that higher-than-expected demand for Apple’s MacBook Neo helped set a March record for new Mac users.

Despite being a $4 trillion company, Apple continues to find new ways to deliver solid growth for its shareholders.

Stocks have been on a tear. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 0.9% this past week through midday Friday, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 1.4%. The latter two, with gains of 10% and 15% respectively in April, posted their best months since 2020. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

There was a lot that could have made the stock market fall. Investors shrugged off questions about when — or even if — the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again this year after the central bank held rates steady, and they ignored the fact that Jerome Powell plans to stay on the Fed’s Board of Governors even as Kevin Warsh prepares to become chair. Inflation came in hot as oil prices continued to rise, and earnings from Microsoft and Meta Platforms revealed sizable capital spending increases — and resulted in falling stocks.

Yet good news elsewhere on the earnings front seems to be overshadowing geopolitical, Fed, and capital expenditure concerns. Eli Lilly earnings offered evidence that weight-loss drugs were only getting bigger; Coca-Cola’s beat showed that not all soft-drink makers are suffering from an Ozempic overhang; Alphabet’s capital spending paid off with big profits; and Caterpillar’s numbers demonstrated that there’s more to its business than mining and machinery.

More earnings are on their way — and they could provide further fuel for the market. Palantir Technologies, Advanced Micro Devices, and Arm Holdings should reveal more about the state of tech and artificial intelligence, but the market will also get a glimpse at how some leading healthcare and consumer companies are doing, most notably Pfizer, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Walt Disney, Uber Technologies, and McDonald’s.

“Earnings and fundamentals are still driving this market,” said Jack Herr, senior investment analyst at GuideStone Funds. “The setup into the back half of the year remains constructive.”

Even if fundamentals weren’t so good, selling in May would likely be a bad idea based on historical data. Over the past 12 years, the S&P 500 has gained a median 6.3% from May through October, according to LPL Financial data. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The months of May and July have historically been particularly strong, notes Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, with the S&P rising in May 12 times over the past 13 years, and 11 times in a row in July. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

That doesn’t mean it will be easy. The stock market’s April surge pushed the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, down to 16.50 after soaring above 30 in late March, a sign that the wall of worry has been climbed. Keep an eye out for the unexpected — the April jobs numbers, due out on May 8, could pack a punch — but historically, betting on the fundamentals has been a stronger approach than positioning for a summer slowdown. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. Jobs Report (The Number One Catalyst)

• Nonfarm Payrolls due Friday
• Expectations: approximately 60,000 to 70,000 jobs (slowing)
• A strong number pushes yields up, pressuring tech and the Nasdaq. A weak number revives rate-cut hopes and bids equities.

2. Interest Rates (Still the Steering Wheel)

• 10-year yield pushing the 4.3% to 4.4% range
• Fed turning less dovish and more divided
• The market is no longer pricing in easy cuts. If yields spike, the Nasdaq leads downside. If yields ease, the rally continues.

3. Earnings (Still Heavy, Still Important)

• 100-plus S&P 500 companies reporting
• Key names: AMD, Palantir, Disney, McDonald’s
• Remember: guidance matters more than the earnings print itself.

The key catalyst will be the U.S. jobs report, which is expected to show slowing growth and will likely drive interest rate expectations.

A stronger-than-expected print could push yields higher and pressure equities, while a softer number would support the current risk-on trend.

The rally has been narrowing and extended, and expectations remain elevated, leaving little room for disappointment, particularly on forward guidance.

Although Friday is a long way away, I am proceeding with caution.

– Richie

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