April is usually a good month for stocks. Hope springs eternal

*Analyzing the markets with Richie Naso, a Wall Street veteran of over 40 years and former member of the NYSE.

DJIA 52-wk: +4.46% YTD: -2.28% Wkly: -0.96%

S&P 500 52-wk: +6.22% YTD: -5.11% Wkly: -1.53%
NASDAQ 52-wk: +5.76% YTD: -10.29% Wkly: -2.59% 

iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF: 52-wk: -4.73% YTD: +3.22% Wkly: -0.62% 

• S&P 500: Declined by 1.5% over the week, closing at 555.66 USD on March 28.​
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Fell by 1%, ending the week at 415.62 USD.
• Nasdaq Composite: Dropped by 2.6%, with a closing price of 468.94 USD.​

Weekly Highlights:

• Monday, March 24: Markets opened the week on a positive note amid optimism regarding potential reductions in upcoming tariffs. The Dow Jones surged nearly 600 points, with tech stocks leading the rally. ​
• Friday, March 28: Investor sentiment shifted negatively due to higher-than-expected inflation data and deteriorating consumer confidence. The Dow Jones dropped over 700 points, the S&P 500 fell by 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 2.7%. ​

Economic Indicators:

• Inflation: The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose by 0.4% in February, bringing the year-over-year rate to 2.8%, surpassing the Fed's 2% target. ​
• Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan's survey reported a decline in consumer sentiment to its lowest level since 2022, reflecting concerns over rising inflation and economic uncertainty. ​

Market Trends:

• Gold Prices: As a safe-haven asset, gold prices surged to a record high during the week, marking its best quarterly performance since 1986, driven by trade war anxieties and rising inflation. ​
• Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.254% as investors sought safer assets amid economic concerns. ​

In summary, the week was characterized by initial optimism due to potential easing of trade tensions, followed by significant sell-offs influenced by inflationary pressures and declining consumer confidence.

The Fed, though, may not be riding this one out. Remember, the central bank has two mandates: promoting price stability and maximum employment. And while core inflation remains sticky, an economic slowdown might be a bigger concern. The past few jobs reports have shown weaker job growth. While Powell was quick to note all the “uncertainty” about the economy due to Trump tariffs at his most recent press conference on March 19, that could change when March’s payrolls are released on April 4.

“Tariffs could have a transitory impact on inflation and be manageable for the Fed,” says Dec Mullarkey, managing director of investment strategy and asset allocation for SLC Management. “But if there is weakness in the job market the Fed will jump on it.”

Lower rates would ultimately put Powell and the administration on the same page. Bessent has said in numerous interviews that he and Trump are more focused on the 10-year Treasury than the short-term lending rates the Fed controls. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently hovering a little below 4.3%, down from a 2025 peak of just under 4.8% from mid-January, and those rates have fallen even though the Fed hit the pause button on rate cuts at its January and March meetings.

Rate cuts could help keep them there, says Campe Goodman, fixed-income portfolio manager at Wellington Management, who notes that while the Fed is supposed to be apolitical, that doesn’t mean it is immune from political pressure. “If the question is to cut or not cut, then why not cut?” he says.

Lower rates would also help stimulate the economy, which seems to be slowing fast. It’s also worth noting that the Fed cut rates three times late last year by a combined percentage point, and rate cuts typically take time to work their way into the broader economy, so their impact may just start to kick in later this year. That could help reignite the stock market, too.

The market will still have to deal with tariffs, the most likely source of recent volatility. Lingering worries that the Fed may be on the sidelines for longer haven’t helped, though. If Powell decides to take the wheel and steer toward lower rates, there’s still time to dodge the bear in the road.

Insiders at a range of retail companies have been buying up stock, as the entire sector has faded.

Tariff and trade-war worries have consumers cutting back. Recent high-profile stock purchases by executives and directors include the CEO of Best Buy, who bought shares on the open market for the first time, and a director at Home Depot, who bought shares on the open market for the first time in years.

Now large investors are pouncing on retail’s embattled names, specifically Barnes & Noble Education, and Victoria’s Secret.

Barnes & Noble Education stock plunged an astonishing 93% in 2024, including the effect of a one-for-100 reverse stock split in June that was part of a plan to regain compliance with New York Stock Exchange listing requirements.

Shares of Barnes & Noble Education, which operates campus bookstores and e-commerce sites, have slipped 2% so far this year.

Investment vehicle Toro 18 Holdings paid a total of $1.7 million over March 12 and 13 for 202,044 Barnes & Noble Education shares, an average price of $8.57 each. Toro 18 now owns 11.2 million shares, a 32.9% stake, according to a form it filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Haptic-technology firm Immersion is the sole member of Toro 18, and Immersion owns its Barnes & Noble Education stake through Toro 18. Barnes & Noble Education Chairman William C. Martin is Immersion’s chief strategy officer, while Barnes & Noble Education director Eric Singer is Immersion’s president, chairman, and CEO.

Immersion didn’t respond to a request for comment on Toro 18 buying more Barnes & Noble Education stock.

Victoria’s Secret stock surged 56% in 2024, and so far in 2025 shares of the lingerie retailer have wiped out last year’s gains by tumbling 49%.

In January, Victoria’s Secret named Scott Sekella to replace Timothy Johnson as chief financial officer when he retires in June. Shares slipped in early March when Victoria’s Secret provided disappointing guidance, even though the company’s fourth-quarter earnings were strong.

BBRC International paid a total of $19.5 million over March 10 through 13 for 1.2 million Victoria’s Secret shares, an average price of $16.94. The shares were purchased through investment vehicles controlled by billionaire Brett Blundy, according to regulatory filings from BBRC, which is itself controlled by Blundy. His investment vehicles now own 9.3 million Victoria’s Secret shares.

BBRC didn’t respond to a request for comments on the stock purchases.

Are Falling and the Stock Market is Volatile. That’s Bullish.

Consumer sentiment is in decline, inflation expectations are rising, small business confidence is sagging, and recession calls are growing. In the short term, this swirling uncertainty has almost certainly been the driver of market volatility. But in the long term, Mitch Zacks thinks it could be bullish.

First, allow me to frame the various—and quite widespread—declines in sentiment and growth expectations.

Let’s start with the most critical component of the U.S. economy, the consumer. In March 2025, U.S. consumer sentiment experienced a significant decline of -11%, reaching its lowest point in nearly two and a half years. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 57.9 from February’s 64.7, which was well below expectations and was accompanied by a sharp increase in long-term inflation expectations.

Mitch says he does not make specific stock recommendations in this column, but I’ve also observed some consumer warning signs from CEOs of consumer-facing companies. The CEO of Delta Airlines, Ed Bastian, said there was “something going on with economic sentiment, something going on with consumer confidence.” And Walmart CEO Doug McMillion echoed those concerns, stating that shoppers appear to be budget pressured, adding that he’s noticed certain “stress behaviors [that Walmart] worries about.”

Small businesses have also been feeling a bit uneasy. In March 2025, small business uncertainty in the United States surged to its second-highest level since 1973, reflecting growing apprehension among entrepreneurs about the economic outlook. Related, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported a significant decline in its Small Business Optimism Index, dropping 2.1 points to 100.7 in February. These shifts indicate that small business owners are increasingly cautious, potentially scaling back expansion plans and bracing for potential economic challenges ahead.

Finally, there has been a pronounced increase in the mention of ‘recession’ online and in the press. Over the past month or so, recession talk has seen a three-fold increase in the media, and searches for “recession” on Google saw a sharp spike.

Mitch wants to be careful not to frame these sentiment indicators and fears of recession as overblown concerns. There is fundamental data that supports some caution, and tariff uncertainty could ultimately steer inflation and growth in the wrong direction. It is also fair to say that sagging sentiment and rising inflation expectations can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, as wary consumers opt to save, and businesses hit the pause button on investment and hiring plans.

What we also have here, however, is a rapidly growing “wall of worry,” which stocks love to climb over time.

Long-time readers of my columns have seen me make this argument before, whether in the context of earnings expectations or recession fears. As consensus starts to tilt negative and expectations fall, the bar gets lowered for the economy and U.S. corporations to ‘over-deliver.’ A clear example comes from 2022—Google searches for “recession” spiked then as well, with a majority of economists expecting economic contraction. The recession never came, and the stock market posted exceptional years in 2023 and 2024. As investors and consumers grow more worried and skeptical in the current environment, I see a bigger opening for ‘better-than-expected’ outcomes down the road.

It is clear that consumer sentiment, small business confidence, and recession fears are all moving in a negative direction. These concerns may be warranted, and tariff policy could escalate in a way that works against positive trends in growth and inflation.

But history also reminds us that markets can thrive—on a forward-looking basis—when expectations are falling. While policy uncertainty remains a concern, the downstream effect has also created a significant “wall of worry” that lowers the bar for positive surprises. Consumers and businesses may be more adaptable than they’re currently getting credit for, and tariff policy may not be as broad and punitive as many fear. Investors should remember that when pessimism dominates, even modestly positive economic developments can fuel market rebounds.

1) Tuesday: PMI report

2) Wednesday: Pres. Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs focused on the “Dirty 15,” the 15% of countries with highest tariffs and trade imbalances with the U.S.

3) Friday: The jobs report for March

DATA: Barron’s print edition page 28 3/31/25 Market Week Paul R. La Monica

Paragraph: one ChatGPT market recap for the week of 3/24/25-3/28/25 As stated above

Paragraph: two Barron’s print edition page 29 3/31/25 The Trader the Economy is Slowing Paul R. La Monica

Paragraph: three Barron’s online 3/23/25 Retail Stocks See Big Buys from Large Investors Ed Lin

Paragraph: four Mitch on the Markets online 3/29/25 Are Falling and the Stock Market is Volatile. That’s Bullish. Mitch Zacks

Paragraph: five Closing remarks Richie Naso opinion

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