Is the Bottom In?

*Analyzing the markets with Richie Naso, a Wall Street veteran of over 40 years and former member of the NYSE.

• DJIA 52-wk: +21.34% | YTD: +6.53% | Wkly: +0.66%
• S&P 500 52-wk: +24.33% | YTD: +8.56% | Wkly: +0.65%
• NASDAQ 52-wk: +33.40% | YTD: +11.39% | Wkly: +0.70%
• Russell 2000 | Wkly: +3.90% | Standout Performer; Outpaced The S&P 500, Nasdaq, And Dow
  
  Market Close 12th June, 2026.

HYG — Junk Bond Watch

HYG had a solid week as risk appetite improved and credit spreads remained relatively tight. High-yield bonds benefited from the same “risk-on” environment that pushed small-cap stocks higher, with rate fears easing and income-focused investors continuing to favor high-yield over cash and investment-grade alternatives, even as some broader economic data showed signs of softening.

Why it matters for stocks:

• When HYG is strong, it suggests investors are comfortable taking risk and credit markets remain supportive of equities.
• When HYG weakens, it often signals growing concern about economic growth, rising default risk, tighter financial conditions, or declining liquidity.

SpaceX First-Day Trading Recap (June 12, 2026)

• IPO Price: $135.00
• Opening Trade: $150.00 (+11.1%)
• Intraday High: $176.52 (+30.8%)
• Closing Price: $160.95 (+19.2%)
• Closing Market Value: ~$2.1 Trillion

What Happened?

SpaceX’s debut as SPCX became the largest IPO in market history, raising approximately $75 billion at a valuation of about $1.77 trillion. Demand was extremely strong from both institutions and retail investors, pushing the stock nearly 20% above its IPO price by the close.

The Great, Big, Boring SpaceX IPO

In the end, the space company’s debut was relatively mundane.

The SpaceX initial public offering was expected to deliver dramatic twists and turns, but instead proved to be something far more ordinary. The public debut of SpaceX — officially Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX), up 19.22% on the day — meant different things to different investors but was significant for all. To some, it was an example of poor corporate governance and a sign of irrational market exuberance. To others, it represented a gateway to an artificial-intelligence-fueled future in which SpaceX is worth trillions, or a symbol of an American manufacturing renaissance paired with cutting-edge AI.

It will take time to settle the bull and bear debates. By most measures, SpaceX’s IPO was a success. Trading went off without a hitch, and the stock gained 19% from its offering price of $135 to finish the day at $160.95. More than 500 million shares changed hands. But SpaceX, which beat OpenAI and Anthropic to become the first major AI-related company to go public, did not answer the one big question investors have been asking: is AI a bubble?

It is hard to overstate the hype heading into Friday. SpaceX pioneered reusable rockets and built Starlink, a space-based broadband service positioned to expand mobile connectivity. The lead-up to its IPO became a cultural event with a reach extending well beyond the stock market; on Wednesday, there were reportedly almost twice as many searches for “SpaceX IPO” as for “Iran war,” despite continued U.S. military activity against Iranian targets.

The hype also affected other space-related stocks, which ran up into the IPO and then fell sharply on Friday. Shares of launch-services provider Rocket Lab (RKLB) closed down 10.8%, while AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), which is building a communications satellite constellation, fell 15.5%. Other space stocks, including Firefly Aerospace, Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Voyager Technologies, and Redwire, dropped between 11% and 19%.

SpaceX’s own debut, in contrast, was relatively mundane. Shares opened at $150 and never looked back, trading as high as $176.52 before settling near $165 for much of the day. The result was an orderly one-day post-IPO rise: a 10% to 30% pop for a large tech IPO is considered normal and suggests the deal was priced well and the market was ready to accept the terms offered. Major brokerages — with the exception of Robinhood Markets, which experienced technical issues due to high traffic — reported that the day went as planned.

By the session’s close, SpaceX was valued at $2.1 trillion — roughly 60 times estimated 2026 sales of $35 billion and 33 times estimated 2027 sales of $64 billion, according to FactSet. The valuation is also approximately 210 times SpaceX’s estimated 2026 EBITDA of $10 billion and 91 times estimated 2027 EBITDA of $23 billion.

SpaceX will need to deliver growth that exceeds these estimates to support its valuation. The company eventually plans to place AI data centers in space, leveraging its low launch costs to gain an advantage over Earth-based data centers. That plan depends on SpaceX’s large, fully reusable Starship rocket system, which is not yet fully operational. Because Starship is intended to enable improved Starlink service and AI computing capacity, getting it consistently into orbit and operating reliably will be a key catalyst for the shares.

Wall Street has begun forming its own views. In the days before the IPO, SpaceX received its first Buy rating, with a $190 price target. Shortly after its debut, it received its first Sell rating, from CFRA Research, with a $115 price target; the analyst cited the company’s ambitious but risky growth plan and high valuation. By the end of the day, the average analyst price target stood near $174, based on coverage from only five analysts — a number expected to grow closer to 50 within weeks.

The more than 20 bankers involved in the IPO were among the day’s biggest winners, earning approximately $500 million in fee income for executing the pricing and trading of a deal of this complexity — a notable contrast to the more difficult debut of Meta Platforms (META), which spent much of its first day struggling to stay above its $38 IPO price.

The IPO is also likely to provide a financial boost to some prominent Republican donors, including Peter Thiel and Antonio Gracias, given their existing stakes in the company. The largest beneficiary, however, is SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, whose ownership stake has reportedly made him the world’s first trillionaire.

Whether the investors who bought into the IPO do as well remains to be seen. With its initial day of trading complete, SpaceX will now need to show that, despite the relatively uneventful debut, it can deliver on its longer-term ambitions.

SpaceX IPO Sparks New Bullish Momentum, Seeking Alpha Analyst Says

Wall Street traded higher on Friday as investors focused on the highly anticipated public debut of SpaceX (SPCX), with enthusiasm surrounding the offering helping support gains across major U.S. equity indexes.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced 0.7%, while the benchmark S&P 500 (SP500) gained 0.5%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) added 0.3%.

According to Seeking Alpha analyst Alex King of Cestrian Capital Research, investor enthusiasm generated by the SpaceX IPO injected fresh momentum into equity markets.

“The animal spirits unleashed by the SpaceX IPO have driven up the Nasdaq, the Russell 2000 and even the Dow.” — Alex King, Cestrian Capital Research / Seeking Alpha, June 12, 2026

King argued that the major indexes are showing increasingly constructive technical setups. While he noted that the S&P 500 has not participated to the same degree as some other benchmarks, he believes the broader market outlook remains favorable — describing the S&P 500 as the current “laggard” and cautioning that it could still retreat into correction territory in the near term.

Despite that risk, King said he expects stocks to deliver stronger-than-anticipated performance through the end of the year, although the path higher may require more active navigation than investors experienced during the spring rally. This reflects the analyst’s own view and is not a guarantee of future market performance.

SpaceX’s IPO Sets Off an Options Frenzy

KEY POINTS

• SpaceX’s IPO aimed to raise approximately $75 billion, with a projected market value of roughly $1.8 trillion and high investor demand.
• Options trading tied to major new IPOs, including SpaceX, is expected to generate historic volumes and significantly increased stock-trading activity.
• Interest in options trading is reported to be at the highest level in market history, with no signs of slowing.

Some commentators have suggested that artificial intelligence carries longer-term risks for society, while many investors remain focused on a shorter-term opportunity: a wave of major AI-related companies moving from private to public markets.

Pre-IPO allocations for these offerings have reportedly been heavily sought after by large investors, and post-IPO trading has been similarly active. Elon Musk’s SpaceX aimed to raise close to $75 billion, with a market value of approximately $1.8 trillion at the start of trading. Institutional and retail demand was reported to be high, and exchanges and index providers stood to benefit from the resulting trading volume.

SpaceX, and potentially other large private AI-related companies in the future, are expected to eventually be added to benchmark indexes and exchange-traded funds, including the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq-100. Holding those broader portfolios is one way investors can gain exposure to newly listed companies without trading the individual stock directly.

Large IPOs of this size are generally eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500, although that index provider’s rules do not permit fast-tracked additions, which can lead to differences in how various benchmarks perform around such events.

Options on SpaceX shares were expected to become tradable shortly after the IPO — an event market commentators suggested could significantly increase trading activity. With high investor demand and limited stock available, options-implied volatility was expected to run higher than might otherwise be justified, with wider bid-ask spreads reflecting the additional uncertainty faced by market makers.

Strategies Discussed in the Article

The Barron’s piece outlined three options strategies that are sometimes discussed in this type of environment. These are general descriptions provided for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to use any particular strategy or to trade any particular security.

Cash-secured puts: An investor can sell a cash-secured put with an expiration of a month or less, receiving a premium in exchange for an obligation to buy the stock at the strike price if assigned. Some investors select strikes that reflect a price at which they would be comfortable owning the shares. If the stock does not reach the strike, the premium is retained, though the investor remains obligated to have the cash available to purchase the shares if assigned.

Covered calls: An investor holding shares can sell call options against that position — for example, at a strike around 10% above the current price for expirations of a month or less, or further out-of-the-money for longer-dated expirations. The premium received can lower the effective cost basis of the position, but the strategy also caps potential upside, since the shares may be called away if the price rises above the strike.

Vertical call spreads: Buying one call option and selling another with a higher strike but the same expiration is one way to gain exposure to a potential rally with a smaller capital outlay than buying the underlying shares outright. This approach caps the potential gain at the difference between the two strikes, less the net cost of the spread.

These strategies are described for general informational and educational purposes only. They are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or to use any particular options strategy. Options trading involves a high degree of risk and is not suitable for all investors. Please review the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options (the Options Disclosure Document, or ODD), referenced in the disclaimer below, before engaging in options trading.

A Notable Move in Derivatives Strategy

Goldman Sachs derivatives strategist John Marshall has long been regarded as one of Wall Street’s leading voices on options strategy, known for rigorous, benchmark-based analysis of how options can help investors manage risk and pursue returns. Until recently, his insights were available primarily to major Goldman Sachs clients.

Marshall has left Goldman Sachs after 25 years to join Carrick Lane, an asset-management firm specializing in options, where he will join as a senior partner focused initially on investment strategy and product development. The move comes at a time when interest in options trading is reportedly at its highest level in market history.

What I’ll Be Focused On This Week

WATCH LIST — WEEK OF JUNE 15, 2026

1. Federal Reserve Meeting (Biggest Event)
The FOMC meets June 17 to 18. Markets are not expecting a rate change, but traders will be watching the post-meeting statement and press conference closely for any signals on the path of rates through the second half of the year.

2. Can Small Caps Keep Leading?
The Russell 2000 broke out to new highs and has become market leadership for the first time in years.

3. High-Yield Bonds (HYG)
For years, HYG has been one of the better “risk-on / risk-off” indicators for the broader market.

4. Treasury Yields
10-Year Treasury Yield
2-Year Treasury Yield

5. SpaceX (SPCX)
Can SPCX hold above its IPO price?
Does institutional buying continue?
Does the excitement spill over into other growth and space-related stocks?

This week’s Federal Reserve meeting will likely be the market’s primary focus. While no policy change is expected, investors will be listening closely for any clues regarding the path of interest rates during the second half of the year. The reaction of Treasury yields, high-yield bonds, and the Russell 2000 may provide the clearest indication of whether this rally has additional room to run.

For now, the trend remains higher. The Russell 2000’s breakout, strong action in high-yield credit, and continued institutional demand for growth assets suggest that risk appetite remains healthy. As long as market breadth continues to improve and credit markets remain supportive, pullbacks are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities rather than the start of a larger correction.

The bulls remain in control, but next week’s Federal Reserve meeting could determine whether this rally broadens further or pauses after an impressive advance.

– Richie

This content (“Content”) is produced by Richard Naso. The Content represents only the views and opinions of Mr. Naso, who is compensated by TradeZero for producing it. Mr. Naso’s trading experiences and accomplishments are unique, and your trading results may vary substantially from his. TradeZero does not endorse the Content and makes no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy of the Content or information available through any referenced or linked third-party sites. The Content has been made available for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered trading or investment advice or a recommendation as to any security.

Past performance referenced in this Content is not indicative of future results.

Trading securities can involve high risk and the potential loss of funds. Trading on margin is for experienced investors and traders only, as the amount you may lose can be greater than your initial investment. Short selling as a securities trading strategy is extremely risky and can lead to potentially unlimited losses. Options trading is not suitable for all investors as it can involve risk that may expose investors to significant losses. Please read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options (the Options Disclosure Document, or ODD) at theocc.com/Company-Information/Documents-and-Archives/Options-Disclosure-Document before deciding to engage in options trading.

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