Earnings And Guidance

*Analyzing the markets with Richie Naso, a Wall Street veteran of over 40 years and former member of the NYSE.

• DJIA 52-wk: +22.73% | YTD: +2.43% | Wkly: -0.44%
• S&P 500 52-wk: +29.68% | YTD: +4.67% | Wkly: +0.55%
• NASDAQ 52-wk: +42.88% | YTD: +6.86% | Wkly: +1.50%
• iShares Semiconductor ETF 52-wk: +149.77% | YTD: +53.28% | Wkly: +11.04%
  
  Russell 2000: Up roughly +0.4% on the week — constructive consolidation and digestion after rising +5.5% to +5.6% the prior week.
  Note: 10-year yield drives small caps (Russell 2000).
  All figures as of Market close Friday 25th April, 2026.

Speculative corners of the market have taken the lead in April, with high-risk baskets posting outsized gains as investors appear to be chasing beta over fundamentals.

Goldman Sachs basket data compiled by Charles Schwab show the Quantum Index up 35% quarter-to-date as of Wednesday, - as reported by MSN, the strongest performer on the screen, although it is still down 9.3% year-to-date. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The Meme Stocks basket has climbed 27.9%, Non-Profitable Tech has gained 25.6%, and the Most Short Rolling basket is up 20.3%. Retail Favorites has added 19.9%. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The leadership reflects a market driven by short squeezes, thematic speculation, and high-volatility growth rather than defensive positioning or earnings visibility.

High Beta Cyclicals, Macro Momentum Short, and US Drones have also posted strong returns during the period, underscoring the violent rebound in beaten-down pockets of the tape since the March-end trough. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Goldman Sachs strategist Tony Pasquariello said the stock market (SPY) primary uptrend remains intact but warned that near-term conditions have grown more challenging.

“The relative strength index of the S&P is 70, and the most intense speculative buying is behind us now, so the short-term setup is certainly more demanding than it was at the end of March,” Pasquariello wrote in a note to clients. An RSI reading above 70 indicates overbought.

The strategist laid out a detailed bear case, arguing that “stock operators are complacent” and that any “impingement on the flow of energy is set to cascade” as the Iran conflict continues. He also pointed to “a sharp deceleration in CTA demand” and noted the rally has been “exceptionally narrow,” with “only 5% of the stocks in the Russell 3000 index (IWV)” trading at 52-week highs. Additionally, he warned that “US GDP growth is set to slow considerably in the second half of the year as tax stimulus fades.”

However, Pasquariello gave equal weight to bullish factors, noting that “the trading community still has room to add incremental risk” and that “the largest owner of the asset class, US households, never lost the trail and continue to sponsor stocks.”

His bottom line struck a cautious tone without turning outright bearish: “The primary bull trend is intact, but tactical risk/reward is not overly compelling.”

Market recoveries during periods of conflict often feel premature. It’s usually because investors are looking for improving headlines, while markets are looking for stabilization in expectations. It may feel a bit illogical, but stocks do not need resolution to resume an upward trajectory. They need conditions to stop deteriorating faster than anticipated.

I think that’s what we’re seeing here. Despite higher oil prices, higher long-term interest rates, and fewer expected Fed cuts, the market has been supported by stronger-than-expected earnings and forward estimates. The latter matters more than the former.

This is not to say that geopolitical risk can now safely be ignored, and the volatile patch related to the Iran conflict is now over. Negative surprises are always possible. But investors should keep in mind that market resilience in the face of uncertainty is not unusual, and it often tells us more about expectations than complacency. As long as fundamentals hold up, stocks can move higher even while the news remains uncomfortable.

For investors, the takeaway is not to ignore uncertainty, but to better understand what the market is actually responding to.

Are on a Historic Winning Streak. Why It May Be Time to Take Some Profits.

Key Points

• The iShares Semiconductor ETF has surged nearly 50% over 18 consecutive trading sessions since March 30. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• The SOXX ETF trades at 25 times forward earnings, above its 10-year average of 19, and at a 17% premium to the S&P 500.
• Analysts warn of lofty expectations and cyclical risks, though memory chip stocks like Micron and Sandisk offer lower valuations.

Semiconductor stocks are in the midst of a historic run — a winning streak that is every bit as impressive as Joe DiMaggio’s famous stretch of 56 straight games with a hit.

Okay, we may be exaggerating a bit. But you catch the drift.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF is up for 18 consecutive trading sessions, including Friday’s 4% pop on the back of Intel’s solid earnings and an analyst upgrade for Intel (+23.60%) and rival Advanced Micro Devices (+13.91%).

So the big question now is whether investors should keep chasing chip stocks at this point. After all, the ETF has now soared nearly 50% since its streak began on March 30 - Markets and individual securities may experience significant volatility, which can result in rapid and substantial price fluctuations. Past performance is not indicative of future results[VL1] [TB2] For some investors, particularly those with shorter time horizons or concentrated exposure, it may be a good time to consider reassessing their positions or risk levels[VL3] [TB4] The SOXX ETF now trades at nearly 25 times forward earnings estimates, well above its 10-year average price-to-earnings ratio of around 19, according to FactSet. What’s more, the ETF has typically traded at a slight discount to the broader market — but it’s currently fetching a 17% premium to the S&P 500.

Investors may be pricing in strong expectations..[VL5] [TB6] Strong results from Intel and Texas Instruments this week are helping for now. But Steve Sosnick, chief strategist with Interactive Brokers, warns that “a big risk now is that expectations become too lofty for companies to exceed.”

Also, good luck trying to find any chip stocks that have sat out this explosive rally. The worst performer in the SOXX ETF since March 30 is Qualcomm — and it’s still up 16%. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, is up “just” 22%, making it a laggard as well. Credo Technologies, Astera Labs, and Intel are the ETF’s biggest winners — all three have doubled during the winning streak. Intel is on track to close at an all-time high. But Marvell Technology, AMD, Texas Instruments, Micron Technology, and Arm Holdings have all shot up more than 50% as well. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bespoke Investment Group noted that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which roughly mirrors the SOXX ETF and is also on an 18-day winning streak, could be looking stretched. “There has only been one other 18-day period in the index’s history when it gained more, and that was coming out of the dot-com crash lows in Q4 2002,” Bespoke noted.

But there may be pockets of the chip sector that can continue to build on this wave of momentum, even though they have also shot up sharply.

Mizuho Americas tech sector specialist Jordan Klein pointed out that while Intel, AMD, and other central processing unit stocks “get chased to no avail,” there may be better opportunities in memory chips due to the “CPU euphoria.” Despite big rallies of their own, Micron and Sandisk, for example, “still look way cheaper” than AMD, Arm, and Intel, Klein noted.

Micron trades for just 6 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months and Sandisk has a price-to-earnings ratio of around 10. AMD, Intel, and Arm, on the other hand, trade for 42, 74, and 103 times earnings estimates respectively.

These sky-high valuations clearly haven’t been a hindrance for chip investors yet. As Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, pointed out, “there is no doubt that many semiconductor companies are years into a very strong growth cycle that’s driving record earnings. By and large, demand is expected to remain strong for the foreseeable future.” But he added that “people should not forget this is a cyclical business.”

“The fact that this cycle is the largest ever is an obvious benefit during the upswing, but it also brings risks when the cycle peaks,” O’Rourke said.

That’s all the more reason for investors in semiconductor stocks to tread cautiously. There is no shame in locking in some of the big profits in chip companies now before an eventual pullback.

The market is clearly telling you what matters right now: earnings, guidance, and macro confirmation.

• PCE report
• Earnings reports — approximately one-third of S&P 500 companies reporting, including five of the Magnificent Seven

About one-third of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, including five of the Magnificent Seven. As Chris Harvey, CIBC’s Head of Equity and Portfolio Strategy, notes: “The bar for profits is high, and while macro uncertainty remains, expect solid reports — but stocks will continue to trade on guidance.”

At this point, I’m taking a more cautious approach.

– Richie

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