September Is Usually The Worse Month Of the Year For Socks

* Analyzing the markets with Richie Naso, a Wall Street veteran of over 40 years and former member of the NYSE.

DJIA 52-wk: +9.58% | YTD: +7.05% | Wkly: -0.19%

S&P 500 52-wk: +14.37% | YTD: +9.84% | Wkly: -0.10%

NASDAQ 52-wk: +21.12% | YTD: +11.11% | Wkly: +0.19%

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF 52-wk: +7.25% | YTD: +7.64% | Wkly: -0.46%

Weekly Market Highlights

Index Performance

• S&P 500: Up ~0.3%–0.5% for the week, buoyed by a strong Friday rally after Fed Chair Powell hinted at potential rate cuts in September. Money Managers reports.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Gained about 1.5%, closing at record highs late in the week before easing slightly. The Wall Street Journal reports.
• Nasdaq: Slightly lower—down roughly 0.5% to 0.6%—as tech shares were mixed despite the late-week bounce. Money Managers reports.
• Russell 2000 (Small Caps): Led the week's gains, rebounding to a multi-month high before cooling amid Friday’s profit-taking. The Wall Street Journal reports.

Key Drivers

Fed Optimism

• Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Speech reignited optimism for a potential Fed rate cut in September. His tone shifted markets from questioning whether cuts would happen to speculating on their timing. MarketWatch reports.
• Fed funds futures reflected increased expectations—with the probability of a September cut climbing to ~85%. MarketWatch reports.
  

Tech & AI Sector

• Nvidia's earnings were highly anticipated, and the broader AI and chip space saw volatility:
  • Dell dropped nearly 9% after raising guidance but raising concerns over AI-related expenses.
  • Marvell Technology plunged ~19% on weak forward outlooks.
  • Alibaba rallied ~13% after announcing an AI chip development tailored for China’s market, helping offset concerns about profitability.

The Wall Street Journal reports.

Standout Movers

• August S&P Performers:
  • Big gainers: Albemarle (+26.8%), Intel (+25%), Idexx Laboratories (+21%), Dayforce (+21%), UnitedHealth (+20.6%)
  • Big losers: Trade Desk (-37%), Super Micro Computer (-28%), Gartner (-27%), Fortinet (-21%), Coinbase (-19%)

Barron's reports.

• Other Notables:
  • Affirm surged ~11% on earnings beats and return to profitability. The Wall Street Journal reports.
  • Petco jumped ~24% after turning profitable and raising guidance. AP News reports.
  • Kraft Heinz gained ~2.7% on news of an upcoming corporate breakup. The Wall Street Journal reports.

Key Takeaways

• Overall Momentum: Markets ended August on a high note. The S&P 500 closed the month up 1.9%, marking its fourth straight positive month with a YTD gain ~9.8%.
• Volatility & Rotation: Tech and AI saw diverging performances. While some stocks faltered, others benefited from positive earnings or renewed market rotation into cyclical and small-cap sectors.
  
  

·Weekly Summary Table

• S&P 500
  Weekly Move: +0.3% to +0.5%
  Highlights: Fed optimism helped offset midweek uncertainties
  
• Dow Jones
  Weekly Move: +1.5%
  Highlights: Broke record highs after Powell remarks
  
• Nasdaq
  Weekly Move: –0.5% to –0.6%
  Highlights: Tech lagged despite Friday recovery
  
• Russell 2000
  Weekly Move: Strong weekly bounce
  Highlights: Small-caps led gains, rebounding to multi-month levels
  
• Big Tech / AI
  Weekly Move: Mixed, volatile
  Highlights: Dell & Marvell down; Alibaba up sharply; Nvidia watched closely
  
• Stocks on Surge
  Weekly Move: Albemarle, Intel, UnitedHealth, Petco, Affirm
  Highlights: Various catalysts from earnings, AI, corporate moves
  
• Notable Declines
  Weekly Move: Trade Desk, Super Micro, Gartner, Coinbase
  Highlights: Earnings misses and lowered outlooks
  
• Key Themes
  Weekly Move: Fed cut hopes, earnings, economic data
  Highlights: Driving sentiment heading into September

Roughly an 87% that the central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate next month by a quarter of a percentage point, according to data from CME Group.

The Wall Street Journal reports.

Warren Buffett Turns 95 Today. 10 of His Biggest Investing Lessons.

Warren Buffett celebrates his 95th birthday on Saturday—marking a milestone of longevity and leadership at Berkshire Hathaway.

BRK.B +0.62%

Buffett plans to step down as Berkshire CEO at year’s end after 60 years at the helm. He leaves an extraordinary legacy as an investor and manager.

He took control of a struggling textile company in 1965 and has turned it into the world’s largest conglomerate with a market value of over $1 trillion and annual after-tax operating earnings of about $45 billion.

Here are 10 lessons, or takeaways, from his long career. Investors may not agree with some or many of them, but they are worth considering.

1. Don’t pay up for stocks. Buffett generally doesn’t pay more than 15 times forward earnings for a stock. Even when buying growth companies like Apple nearly a decade ago or Coca-Cola in the late 1980s, Buffett bought them for under 15 times earnings.
   
2. Don’t be afraid to take profits—even if it means paying a lot in taxes. While Buffett preaches “forever” investing, the reality is different. Berkshire has cut its formerly huge stake in Apple by 70% and reduced its interest in Bank of America by 40% over the past year or so. In recent years, Berkshire has exited sizable holdings in JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs Group, Citigroup and Paramount Global among others. The only two “forever” stocks in the Berkshire portfolio could be Coke and American Express.
   
3. Stick with what you know. Buffett retains a 20th century mind-set to his investments. Buffett owns few new-economy stocks. And it’s the same story with Berkshire’s wholly owned businesses, which are led by insurance, railroads and utilities.
   
4. Start early. Buffett was following the markets as a boy and reading investment periodicals in the Omaha public library. He made his first investment—Cities Services preferred—in 1942 when he was 12.
   
5. Seek out great teachers. Buffett was captivated by value investor Ben Graham’s book The Intelligent Investor published in 1949. Buffett went to Columbia Business School where Graham taught and went to work for Graham’s investment firm before striking out on his own.
   
6. Don’t be afraid of concentrated investments. Five stocks—American Express, Apple., Bank of America, Coca-Cola and Chevron —made up almost 70% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio of roughly $300 billion at the end of the second quarter. Buffett’s own portfolio is hyper-concentrated with over 99% of his net worth in Berkshire stock—a stake now worth about $150 billion.
   
7. Hire great managers and let them do their thing. Berkshire grants far more autonomy to the top executives of its subsidiaries than virtually any other big company.
   
8. Don’t retire too soon. Buffett doesn’t believe in retirement at 65 for himself and for his top managers. Buffett’s approach has paid off for Berkshire investors as the stock is up thirtyfold since he turned 65 in 1995.
   
9. Be stingy with share issuance. Berkshire hates issuing stock for acquisitions and has never offered stock compensation to anyone at Berkshire. Everyone gets paid in cash. That has paid off big-time for Berkshire holders as the share count is up just 40% since Buffett took over in 1965. Buffett focuses on growing per-share intrinsic value. The per-share part of that rule is critical.
   
10. Do something you like. Buffett has always loved his work—saying in the past that he “tap dances” to the office every day. Berkshire is Buffett’s baby, and he isn’t giving it when he relinquishes the CEO job since he plans to remain chairman.

He told shareholders at Berkshire’s annual meeting in May that he also plans to be in the office daily in 2026—not surprising for someone who said a few years ago that he was “always on the clock” for Berkshire.

Berkshire investors are hoping he stays on the clock for at least several more years.

Happy birthday, Warren Buffett.

Weekly Outlook Table

Focus Area

• Labor Market Data
  What to Watch: NFP jobs report (~78K expected)
  Implication: Confirmation of cooling = Fed tailwinds
  
• Earnings
  What to Watch: Tech and consumer names
  Implication: Volatility trigger or leader momentum
  
• Fed Signal
  What to Watch: Powell remarks, market reaction
  Implication: Drives sentiment and risk appetite
  
• Geopolitics
  What to Watch: Shanghai summit, tariffs
  Implication: Could disrupt global sentiment
  
• Seasonality
  What to Watch: Typical September weakness
  Implication: Supports diversification strategy
  

Final Take

Next week promises to be a pivotal moment for markets: economic data, earnings, and geopolitical signals will shape near-term direction. Fed rate cut expectations remain central, but September's historical challenges call for caution.

Rotation, rotation & rotation are the keys for moving forward.Keep in mind that September is usually not a good month for stocks.

— Richie

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