Fed meeting likely to produce first rate cut of 2025. Will it keep going?

September 17, 2025

Fed meeting likely to produce first rate cut of 2025. Will it keep going?

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The Federal Reserve is widely expected this week to make its first interest rate cut of 2025, but the bigger question for investors is how many more cuts could be on the way as the central bank contends with a weak job market, sticky inflation, and mounting White House pressure.

One clue will come in the form of the Fed's "dot plot," a chart updated quarterly that shows each official's prediction about the direction of the central bank's benchmark interest rate.

The last dot plot, released in June, revealed a consensus among Fed officials for two cuts this year amid uncertainties about how the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes would impact the economy.

That first cut is expected this Wednesday, and most Fed watchers predict it will be a quarter percentage point reduction, marking the first easing of monetary policy since December. Yahoo Finance reports.

EdgeUp

🏛️ Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures stall as Wall Street braces for Fed decision

US stock futures wobbled on Wednesday in the countdown to the end of Federal Reserve's policy meeting, overwhelmingly expected to usher in the first US interest-rate cut of 2025.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 fluctuated along the flat line, after the major U.S. gauges ended Tuesday little changed. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were also little changed. Yahoo Finance reports.


🎁 FedEx profit to be dragged down by US tariffs on previously exempt parcels

FedEx will report a quarterly profit hit from President Donald Trump's decision to end tariff-exempt treatment for popular direct-to-consumer shipments when the global delivery firm reports results on Thursday, analysts said.

FedEx's fiscal first quarter, which ended on August 31, captures the impact from the May 2 end of "de minimis" exemptions for packages from China and Hong Kong. They accounted for roughly three-quarters of the roughly 1.4 billion annual packages that had been admitted to the U.S. under the exemption that let shipments valued at less than $800 enter duty free.

The US also removed de minimis exemptions for the rest of the world on August 29, with full financial effects yet to come. Yahoo Finance reports.


🤖 China tells tech firms to stop buying Nvidia's AI chips, FT reports

China's internet regulator has ordered top technology firms to halt purchases of Nvidia artificial intelligence chips and cancel existing orders as part of a broader push to cut reliance on U.S. technology, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. Shares of the U.S. company were down 1% in premarket trading.

Successive U.S. administrations have restricted China's access to advanced chips, prompting Beijing to press domestic firms to turn away from American suppliers, hitting industry leaders like Nvidia.

The move comes days after China accused the company of violating its anti-monopoly law, marking the latest flare-up in the trade war with Washington. The Cyberspace Administration of China directed companies including ByteDance and Alibaba this week to terminate their testing and orders of the RTX Pro 6000D, the report said. Reuters reports.


📊 Oracle sparks bubble talk with stock price in Dot-Com territory

For anyone concerned that artificial intelligence is fueling a bubble in technology stocks, Oracle has entered the conversation.

Shares of the database software company have soared 84% this year, the seventh-best performance in the S&P 500 Index, as scorching demand for AI computing turbocharges its revenue growth.

The latest leg of the rally came after Oracle projected revenue in its cloud-computing business will jump 700% in the next three fiscal years, sending the stock up 36% on Sept. 10. Oracle also has been linked to the Trump administration’s negotiations to keep TikTok operating in the U.S.

The company has served as TikTok’s primary cloud infrastructure provider for years. On Wednesday, the White House extended the deadline for its ban of the Chinese video-sharing app until Dec. 16 while talks continue. Yahoo Finance reports.


💻 The memory chip war is heating up the markets

Long underestimated, memory chip manufacturers are now the center of attention.

Investors are closely scrutinizing this strategic sector, still unsure about who will emerge as the big winner in this battle. MarketScreener reports.


🤳 China says U.S. TikTok deal a 'win-win', will review app's technology and IP transfers

China on Wednesday called the framework deal reached in Madrid to switch short-video app TikTok to U.S.-controlled ownership a "win-win" and said it would review TikTok's technology exports and intellectual property licensing, in a state media editorial.

Investors on both sides of the Pacific are now waiting for a call scheduled for Friday between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in which the agreement should be confirmed.

Progress over the popular social media app - which counts 170 million U.S. users - is seen as key to facilitating further talks in the coming months as the world's two largest economies chart a path beyond their current tariff truce. Yahoo Finance reports.

Top 5 Movers in Early Pre-Market

(All pricing and percent gains are based on Early Pre-Market from 4:00 AM to 7:00 AM Eastern Time)
Benzinga reports.


1) $SQFT: Presidio Property Trust

Total gain: +83.03%

2) $NFE: New Fortress Energy
Total gain: +44.75%

3) $VSTD: Vestand
Total gain: +21.42%

4) $QSG: QuantaSing Group
Total gain: +16.25%

5) $AIIO: Robo.ai
Total gain: +12.35%

Yesterday’s Biggest Movers

The closing price of the top three market percent gainers trading near or above $3 on September 16.
Benzinga reports.

*All pricing and percent gains are based on regular market trading hours from 9:30am to 4:00pm Eastern Time

1) $TURB: Turbo Energy
Total gain: +353.7%
The company announced that it has been selected to supply and implement energy storage projects in Spain with a total capacity of 366 MWh. The projects, valued at approximately $53 million, are scheduled to be executed over the next two years. Benzinga reports.

2) $FGI: FGI Industries
Total gain: +136.52%
The stock appeared to be moving on no notable news.

3) $WBTN: Webtoon Entertainment
Total gain: +39.13%
The company announced that Disney and WEBTOON have entered into a non-binding term sheet for the development of an all-new digital comics platform that will feature current comic book runs and include decades of past comics from across Disney's portfolio including Marvel, Star Wars, 20th Century Studios and more. Benzinga reports.

Today’s Notable Earnings

*Estimate and Actual numbers represent Earnings Per Share in US Dollars



MANU: Manchester United
Q4 2025
Before Market Open
Estimate: -0.060
Actual: N/A

QSG: QuantaSing Group
Q4 2025
Before Market Open
Estimate: 0.140
Actual: N/A

GIS: General Mills
Q1 2026
Before Market Open
Estimate: 0.810
Actual: N/A

Today’s Economic Dates

Time (ET) | Report | Period

8:30 AM - Housing starts - August
8:30 AM - Building permits - August
2:00 PM - FOMC interest-rate decision - N/A

Parting Thoughts

“You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets.”

- Peter Lynch

Sourced in Investopedia.

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