Where Do We Go From Here?

*Analyzing the markets with Richie Naso, a Wall Street veteran of over 40 years and former member of the NYSE.

• DJIA 52-wk: +20.27% | YTD: +3.22% | Wkly: +0.22%
• S&P 500 52-wk: +30.73% | YTD: +8.08% | Wkly: +2.33%
• NASDAQ 52-wk: +46.40% | YTD: +12.93% | Wkly: +4.51%
• Russell 2000: Wkly: +1.50% To +1.70%
  
  Market close Friday 8th May, 2026.

The stock market finished the week of May 4 to 8, 2026 on a strong note, with the major indexes pushing to fresh all-time highs as investors cheered a better-than-expected April jobs report, strong corporate earnings, and continued momentum in AI and semiconductor stocks.

Jobs Report Helped the Bulls

Friday’s April payrolls report showed the U.S. added about 115,000 jobs, above expectations. Wage growth remained relatively tame, easing inflation fears while still signaling the economy remains resilient. That combination was viewed as Goldilocks for equities. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tech and AI Leadership Continued

• Chip stocks surged on continued AI infrastructure spending.
• Software and cybersecurity earnings were generally strong.
• The Nasdaq posted one of its strongest multi-week advances since 2009. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
  
  

Earnings Season Stayed Strong

About 84% of reporting S&P 500 companies beat estimates, with earnings growth running near the strongest pace since late 2021. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wall Street advanced on Friday as investors looked past ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and focused instead on the latest nonfarm payrolls report, which reinforced confidence in the broader U.S. economy. The rally was led by technology shares, helping the Nasdaq Composite climb 1.7%. The benchmark S&P 500 gained 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.1% higher.

“This market is one to participate in, not one to over-analyze,” Seeking Alpha analyst Alex King of Cestrian Capital Research said, arguing that momentum continues to favor equities despite lingering macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns. ( SeekingAlpha )

“Stocks are going up for a variety of reasons but the fact is that they are going up,” King added, emphasizing that investors should focus more on market action than attempting to predict turning points.

According to King, “no one is a good enough analyst to forecast the timing” of when the rally could reverse, adding that investors “must let price lead your opinion, not vice versa.”

The S&P 500 is rising 2.3% to 7,395 this past week, while the Nasdaq Composite is up 4.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has advanced 0.1%. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are on track to close the week at record highs.

Driving the gain: a strong earnings season. Through Thursday, 87% of S&P 500 members had beaten profit estimates, according to Evercore ISI data. While the few companies that came up short had their stocks punished, those that beat on both top and bottom lines saw their stocks gain 1.1% on average. Those gains have been the bedrock of the stock market rally. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tech earnings have been even better. Analysts expect earnings for the VanEck Semiconductor ETF to rise 46% annually in aggregate from the end of 2025 through the end of 2027, according to FactSet. Profits from chip companies like Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing alone could help drive S&P 500 earnings per share up 18% annually to $378 in 2027. As long as the data-center story continues apace, the index has a credible path to that level. These are analyst projections and not a guarantee of future results.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF has gained 11% this past week, and is up 57% for the year. A quick look at the chart shows a nearly straight line upward, and the sector looks technically stretched. “The buying opportunity has narrowed considerably,” writes Chris Harvey, CIBC Capital Markets’ head of equity and portfolio strategy, adding that the current setup is more suited to short-term traders than long-term investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Still, an S&P rally to 8,000 appears feasible even if the chip rally slows. That number is only 8% away from current levels, and it would put the index up 17% for the year. Drawdowns have been shallow in the past several months, with even the Iran conflict causing a mere 9.1% drop. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

History suggests the path could be achievable. Since 1960, the S&P 500 has typically gained 12% over the 12 months following a record high, according to UBS Wealth Management data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

With the S&P 500 trading at 21.2 times earnings, valuations are always a concern, but with the job market growing but not too fast, markets now expect the Federal Reserve to remain on hold until the middle of next year. “If you have stability in interest rates, then the multiple is sustainable,” says David Stubbs, AlphaCore Wealth Advisory’s chief investment strategist.

Deutsche Bank’s Bankim Chadha reiterated his 8,000 target this past week “on the back of strong first-quarter beats and gravity-defying strength for megacap growth and tech.”

At the end of the day, fundamentals appear stronger than fears. That said, past performance is not indicative of future results, and investors should consider their own financial circumstances before making any investment decisions.

CPI Inflation Report (Tuesday)

The main event of the week.

PPI and Retail Sales (Wednesday and Thursday)

Key data points for assessing whether inflation pressures are building or easing.

Bond Yields

• Lower yields provide fuel for the Nasdaq and growth stocks.
• Higher yields pressure high-valuation AI names.
  
  

Geopolitics: Iran and U.S. Trade Talks

• Oil prices and Strait of Hormuz developments.
• U.S. and China talks.
• Semiconductor and trade headlines.

Next week looks like a classic macro-driven tape. After a powerful six-week rally led largely by tech and AI names, the market heads into a pivotal week filled with inflation data, retail sales numbers, and geopolitical headlines. The key question is whether the economy can remain resilient without inflation reaccelerating.

Personally, I am not inclined to chase this market out of FOMO.

– Richie

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